Preliminary figures show that in July, sales of new energy vehicles surpassed those of ICEs in the Chinese market for the first time with a penetration rate of 50.84%.
Previously, this feat was achieved over the course of a two-week period in April, but never across a whole calendar month.
According to preliminary figures from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), sales of new energy vehicles during July amounted to 879,000. This is a 37% year-on-year increase and a 3% increase over June sales. Overall passenger car sales, meanwhile, were 1,729,000, which is two percent down year-on-year and on the previous month.
This means that according to the preliminary figures, retail sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 50.84% of the total in July. New energy vehicles are the Chinese government’s term for electric vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). It also includes FCEV, but those sales are almost non-existent in China.
Last year, Miao Wei, former Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the China Auto Forum in Shanghai that they expect the electric vehicle penetration rate to exceed 50% in 2025.
Back in March, Wang Chuanfu, the CEO of BYD, predicted that NEVs would achieve more than 50% market share within the following three months. It seems that Wang was just one month out with his prediction. The real test, though, remains whether this figure can actually be achieved for the whole of 2024. Analysts have previously predicted that a 50% penetration rate would not be achieved until much later. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts it will not be achieved until 2028, and the Chinese Federation of Passenger Cars only predicts a 40% penetration rate for 2024.
Currently, the penetration rate for the year to date stands at 43.1%. This is based on cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year of 11.568 million cars, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Of these, the sales of new energy vehicles have amounted to 4.991 million, which is a 34% year-on-year increase.
What can be extracted from these figures is that not only is there a large increase in the sales of new energy vehicles but a wholesale collapse in the sales of ICE cars. It should be noted that in the Chinese context NEVs mean both fully electric, BEV, cars and plug-in hybrid, PHEVs. China also often uses the term EREV, which stands for extended range EV, where a petrol engine acts merely as a generator, in effect a series hybrid PHEV. Technically, the term NEV also includes other categories such as FCEV, but these account for a negligible amount in the Chinese market.
Final figures which will confirm the historic event are likely to be released later this month by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Source: Fast Technology
By Mark Andrews
Published on August 7, 2024 by the Car News China
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